With the Bitcoin rally, the entire focus was on predicting where the asset’s price will be by the end of the year. The digital asset will no doubt enter a phase where various crashes will push the price down, popularly known as the bear market. Little attention has been paid to where the price of the asset might bottom out if the market inevitably enters another bear market.
This normally long section with little momentum has resulted in Bitcoin losing 94%, 87% and 84% of its peak, respectively, over the last three bear markets. A recurring theme of the bear markets has been the decreasing percentages of total depreciation. At this rate, BTC is expected to lose between 75 and 80% from its peak in this cycle. Market analyst Justin Bennett is using this to predict where BTC will bottom out next.
The next bitcoin floor
Bennett hit the next Bitcoin low at $ 50,000 after analyzing the possible price movements of the digital asset. In the current cycle, the analyst sees Bitcoin price reaching USD 200,000 before the bull run is over.
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This bottom is based solely on the cryptocurrency hitting the price range where Bennett expects the asset to peak at the end of the rally. If BTC doesn’t hit that price point before the bull rally is over, we may see a BTC bottom in a much lower price range.
BTC goes into the red ahead of the opening on Friday | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Bennett’s pullback analysis is well respected as the markets have historically been known to experience smaller pullbacks as assets mature. So the 75% to 80% mark is consistent with what the market is known for. However, if the price of BTC is lagging behind Bennett’s prediction, or the needle isn’t far from its current price point, the BTC bottom can land in the $ 10,000-15,000 range using pullback analysis.
The summit before the fall
Bennett’s analysis didn’t just focus on the digital asset crash. He argued for the BTC price of $ 200,000 based on technical market analysis. The analyst points to Fibonacci extensions as indicators of where Bitcoin’s price can peak during this cycle.
For the Fibonacci extensions, comparisons between the 2.272 and 2.414 extensions from previous cycles have revealed a target range that the asset had hit both times. According to this, Bennett sees the asset peaking between $ 207,000 and $ 270,000 before the current cycle is over.
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Going forward, the analyst plans to use the monthly RSI to determine market exits. “Notice how BTC tends to end cycles when the monthly RSI is above 90,” says Bennett. “It also shows a top double pattern in each cycle, which leads me to believe it will happen again.”
Bennett plans to use a combination of Unrealized Net Income / Loss (NUPL) and the monthly RSI to slowly exit the asset over the next several months.
Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com