Analyzes short-term Bitcoin trends

Bitcoin’s recent move around the $ 29,000 mark could affect the cryptocurrency market by the end of the year, EXANTE chief analyst Victor Argonov said.

The market decline has been going on for more than two months, but the June BTC low of $ 28,800 has not yet been overcome, Argonov said. The bears’ failure to drive it down could indicate that a bottom has been reached.

Argonov sees parallels between the current state and the bear market that ended in 2019. Starting with the crash on September 26th at $ 8,100 (from $ 10,000), seven crashes dropped to $ 6,900 by January 2, 2020.

“From time to time the leading cryptocurrency rate crashes, jumps, stabilizes for a while and then collapses even deeper,” observed Argonov. “Over time, the gaps between the break-ins get bigger and the depth gets smaller and smaller.

“If the BTC rate collapsed quickly in September-October, then each new anti-record in November-December required almost a month of ‘preparation’. There were also “unsuccessful” burglaries on December 7th and January 2nd that didn’t set new anti-records. The failure of the bears on January 2nd was taken as a buy signal by market participants, after which the bear market ended and the price began to rise rapidly. “

Between May 12 and July 20 of this year, BTC fell from $ 57,000 to $ 29,300, with the period low at $ 28,800. The recent slumps have not reached this level and the price of BTC has already started to recover.

“This is the bears’ second failure,” said Argonov. “The last one was on June 26th and sent BTC above $ 32,000 for almost a month, but a new failure could be the end of a bear market (like early 2020).”

Argonov said the $ 30,000 range has long been touted as a key marker as stakeholders debate how much the coin should cost if speculation is removed.

The “base price” of BTC, which is mainly determined by the contribution of long-term investors who do not sell and prevent the price from falling below a certain level, has roughly doubled annually since 2015. At the end of 2021, it is estimated that the price should be at least $ 28,000 to $ 30,000.

Although it is an imperfect method, your key stakeholders know the pattern. warned Argonov. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as the $ 30,000 mark is raised enough to become a reality.

Argonov believes the recent movements have little to do with geopolitics. Chinese mining bans have had little effect. It will be years before the EU ban on anonymous BTC transactions comes into effect, should it ever happen. The crash on the US stock exchanges and the release of 16,000 BTC by the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust were just slip-ups.

Argonov believes three scenarios are likely. When the BTC price quickly enters the USD 35,000 area, it can be perceived as an urgent buy signal by the FOMOs. This could propel BTC north of $ 50,000 and even to a new record.

In a flat scenario, BTC would be stuck at its current price due to the bullish uncertainty and stay at no more than $ 40,000 for a long time. If it nears $ 40,000, skeptics could consolidate their profits and see a correction.

If the bears drop below $ 28,800, some rebound is definitely inevitable, but the bear market will continue. It could drop to $ 27,000 in August.

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