- Michaël van de Poppe founded the crypto consultancy Eight Global.
- He believes Bitcoin’s bull cycle will last 6 to 9 months and prices will be around $ 300,000.
- Van de Poppe has broken down the 4 signals he is observing to make price predictions.
Michaël van de Poppe is confident that Bitcoin’s current bull cycle still has leeway, but questioned a current high-profile price forecast.
“I don’t think Cathie Wood is forecasting $ 500,000, it’s kind of ridiculous,” he said in a recent interview with Insider. “$ 500,000 would bring Bitcoin close to gold in market capitalization, it just doesn’t make sense.”
At this week’s SALT conference, star stock picker Wood said she expected Bitcoin to hit $ 500,000 in five years. She also told CNBC anchor Andrew Ross Sorkin that her firm Ark Invest is stepping up its commitment to ether.
Van de Poppe has been trading crypto for four years and recently founded the consulting and education platform Eight Global. He runs a 12-man company based in Amsterdam.
“One of my best friends showed me Coinmarketcap in 2017,” he said. “I started trading crypto, made a lot of mistakes, but got interested in Bitcoin and what it actually represented.”
“When I read the Bitcoin whitepaper, I thought this was going to be big and went down the rabbit hole,” he added.
Bitcoin’s price was volatile in 2021, rising from $ 32,000 to an all-time high of nearly $ 64,000 in April. Since then it has fluctuated between $ 40,000 and $ 50,000.
Van de Poppe told Insiders why he believes Bitcoin will hit $ 300,000 in the first half of 2022, how long he thinks the bull cycle can last, and what price signals he is watching.
Bitcoin at $ 300,000, not $ 500,000
Van de Poppe said he based his price prediction of $ 300,000 on the anonymous analyst Plan B’s stock-to-flow model, which compares the amount of bitcoin in circulation to its rate of production.
“Plan B’s stock-to-flow model has $ 250,000 to $ 300,000 on top,” he told Insider. “The current market cap is around $ 2.3 trillion, but in this situation it would rise to over $ 10 trillion, comparable to the dot-com bubble.”
Van de Poppe also said the stock-to-flow model suggests that the
takes another six to nine months. However, he warned that this bull run would be different from others.
According to van de Poppe, the increased involvement of institutional investors combined with the 65% price hike this year will increase the role of external factors and reduce the impact of “halving”. Halving refers to when the reward for mining Bitcoin is cut in half, roughly every four years.
“We have the four-year cycle, the halving phase, but the larger the market, the less the impact of the halving on the price,” van de Poppe told Insider. “On the other hand, the effects of macroeconomics will be stronger as the market gets bigger – the Fed or the European Central Bank could both start to influence the market.”
But while remaining bullish on Bitcoin, van de Poppe questioned Wood’s price prediction of $ 500,000.
“Five years are so far away,” he said. “$ 500,000 is like a bubble valuation, it just doesn’t make sense.”
He added, “Yes, the market will always overshoot, but $ 500,000? I don’t think so.”
At the SALT conference, Cathie Wood said she believes the price of Bitcoin will soar to $ 500,000.
Brendan McDermid / Reuters
Price signals to look at
After his training as an economist, van de Poppe’s advantage lies in the analysis of crypto prices instead of making technical assessments of the potential uses of a coin. He told Insider that he was looking at four metrics in particular.
“My core business is in Price action“he said.” It’s the easiest approach you can take. “
Price action is the movement of the price of a security over time. Traders develop price action charts to identify and interpret trends; van de Poppe posts a fair amount of this type of technical analysis on his 400,000 follower Twitter account.
van de Poppe said he was combining this quantitative analysis with the ongoing analysis of Basic sentiment of the market.
“It’s a great trick – combining price levels and sentiment,” he said.
“When bitcoin is at $ 30,000 and people think it’s $ 20,000 guaranteed so they try to sell, that gives you a massive buy signal,” he added, describing a contrarian investment strategy.
Van de Poppe also told Insider that he was working on integration On-chain analysis in his research.
This is what happens when price analysts use the public ledger of a crypto asset to create and investigate a financial record. On-chain analysts try to determine the fundamental rather than the speculative value of a blockchain.
Finally, van de Poppe said he was keeping an eye on the chart patterns that can help Bitcoin investors create a ‘golden cross‘ or a ‘Death cross‘. A gold cross is when the 50-day moving price average of Bitcoin exceeds its 200-day moving price average. is a death cross when the opposite happens.
Some capital managers argue that the Bitcoins Golden Cross took place on September 14th as the short-term price average outperformed the long-term price average. However, Van de Poppe cautioned investors not to be overly optimistic on this price signal.
“The golden cross is a signal that we may get back into a boom cycle, but it’s never guaranteed,” he said. “But the fact that some dealers are using it makes it important to have some understanding.”
“We had a death cross earlier this year, but the market has risen again,” he added. “I don’t use the flanks too often because it can be quite difficult to develop a strategy around them.”
Whichever strategy he chooses, it is clear that van de Poppe plans to stay active in the crypto space for a long time.
“Crypto is my life, it’s my passion,” he told Insider. “My friends don’t call me Michaël anymore, they call me crypto-Michael.”