Above: Ethereum (ETHUSD)
Today is the first day of the new month of July and we have already seen some strong price movements on the Ethereum chart. On the monthly Ichimoku chart above, we can identify some clear levels that will help determine whether the market should be interpreted as bullish or bearish. While I generally stick to the basic rule of ‘above the cloud is bullish, below the cloud is bearish’, I am looking at a more immediate timeframe that would extend to mid-July. For me, I consider the short-term trend for Ethereum to be bullish when trading above its monthly Kijun-Sen (2234.90) and bearish when trading below. At the time of this writing (1500 EST), Ethereum is trading at 2108.85 and below the monthly Kijun-Sen.
Above: Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart
Bitcoin’s monthly Ichimoku chart is very similar to Ethereum’s, the exception being on the monthly chart where everyone is trading in terms of their VPOC. Ethereum trades well above its VPOC (Volume Point Of Control) while Bitcoin trades below it. Bitcoin is also trading below its Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen on the monthly chart. The pressure on the bearish momentum on Bitcoin’s chart is compounded by the fact that Bitcoin is trading below its 50% Fibonacci retracement level. As with the Ethereum chart, I view the monthly Kijun-Sen as a barometer for bullish or bearish. Bitcoin’s monthly Kijun-Sen is 34,389.57.
Above: Cardano (ADAUSD) chart
Cardano’s monthly chart is significantly more bullish than Bitcoin or Ethereum. Cardano is trading above its 2021 VPOC (which is 0.34 there) and trading above its monthly Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. The monthly Kijun-Sen on the Cardano chart is at 1.2659. However, Cardano has some data that could very easily plunge it into a major bear movement. Traders have flirted with the possibility of breaking the 1.20 area as the main short-term support level. There has been significant testing in this area of values and a clear interest in pushing it further south – but cops have been stubborn to defend this area. We could see Cardano trading in a tight range for the next four weeks before finally pushing hard for the closing price below the monthly Kijun-Sen. If you look at the monthly wicks / shadows you can see why any move below 1.20 would cause a general panic among the new signings to Cardano. I would be extra careful going on the July 4th U.S. vacation weekend. Big US holidays that coincide with weekends are a kind of “double witchcraft”. Weekends and holidays are times when volume dries up and volatility can increase massively. For well-capitalized institutions / individuals, it will be very, very easy to push Cardano (and the broader crypto market) down during the illiquid periods. Watch out for losses in the double-digit percentage range.
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