Bitcoin could hit $ 30,000 or $ 100,000 this year as analysts warn that “the next few months are key”
Bitcoin (BTC) could soar to $ 100,000 or bottom at $ 30,000 by Christmas – but one of its best-known analysts is betting on the moon.
In a Twitter update on Thursday, PlanB, creators of the stock-to-flow family of BTC pricing models, raised new doubts about a Bitcoin bear move.
PlanB focuses on “important” remaining months
With BTC / USD trading at $ 47,000 this week, PlanB has a lot of confidence.
His most recent prediction of a minimum month-end close for August is exactly in line with current prices – and if the remaining four are just as accurate, Bitcoin could end up at $ 135,000 in 2021.
The first incarnation of stock-to-flow requires an average BTC price of $ 100,000 in this halving cycle, but the U-turn in May gave its proven precision a run for its money.
PlanB nevertheless sticks to it and argues that it has not yet been weakened and that there are no demonstrably better alternatives.
One such alternative model, which now seems unlikely, is the logarithmic plot of “diminishing returns” originally created in 2014 by Bitcointalk forum user Trololo.
A customized version only charges $ 30,000 for BTC / USD at the end of this year, which PlanB thinks is less likely than the $ 100,000 of stock-to-flow.
“The next few months will be crucial,” he added in comments on an accompanying diagram that contrasts the two models.
BTC / USD pricing model comparison table. Source: PlanB / Twitter
When is dual leadership?
As Cointelegraph reported, short-term BTC price analysis is on the cautious side this week.
Related: More like “shock-to-flow” – the BTC price hits the bull trigger as mysterious buyers take advantage of the supply
With $ 50,000 unreachable as support, opinions diverge over the potential impact of the US Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Summit, which will begin shortly.
Although Bitcoin is up 60% from its recent lows of $ 29,000, it has yet to challenge the final resistance to cementing the $ 50,000 mark, let alone the all-time high of $ 64,500 made in April.
When you zoom out, optimism remains the name of the game, with data pointing to a new uptrend coming before the end of the year. This would copy other bull market years after the halving, particularly the 2013 double high.