Bitcoin ‘in sight’ at USD 50K as ‘there is room to run higher’ ahead of correction

Source: Adobe / nicoletaionescu

Bitcoin (BTC) hits one all-time high after another, topping USD 41,700 today, but what could be next? According to many insiders, BTC still has room to move higher before a more substantial correction occurs.

BTC was up 10% in one day and 42% in a week to a price of $ 41,738 on Friday at 12:19 p.m. UTC.

Bitcoin 'in sight' at USD 50,000 as there is 'room for higher runs' prior to correction 102Source:

“Assuming history repeats itself, one could expect another upward move until BTC trades 10-15 times its 200-week moving average; [USD] 7,904, this would mean a price between [USD] 79.040 and [USD] 118,560, “said Kraken Intelligence, the exchange’s in-house research team, in its December 2020 Market Recap & Outlook report.

According to the researchers, the months ahead of us could “see a turnaround in an inevitable mean reversal” as BTC’s correlation with both risk-in and risk-out assets has seemingly strengthened and faded. However, they argue that BTC’s rally is a sign that “market participants are seeing an uptrend in the short term even though historical price levels have been realized”. And according to the researchers’ data, that’s not all good news.

“It can be made the case that BTC has room to run higher.”

Kraken’s researchers aren’t the only ones seeing more room for BTC to grow, however. Chamath Palihapitiya, CEO of venture capital firm Social Capital and chairman of commercial Spaceline Virgin Galactic, stated in an interview with CNBC that BTC “will likely go to $ 100,000, then to $ 150,000, then to $ 200,000”. He couldn’t say in what time the price will reach this level, but gave five or ten years as possibilities.

Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital, argued in an interview that BTC is “at least 10 times better than gold in every way”. So if you just think of a bitcoin product that is 2 times better and has some kind of market capitalization, it follows that bitcoin would cost a million dollars per coin. “Bitcoin’s market capitalization will overshadow gold by 2030, he says.

“We also believe the meteoric rise of Bitcoin will continue as institutional investors continue to recognize its finiteness and seek to hedge against global inflation and uncertainty,” said Joe DiPasquale, CEO of crypto fund manager BitBull Capital, in an e- Mail. “Remember that a 300% increase like in 2020 is not atypical for Bitcoin. The mean increase over the last 10 years is 182% and in 2019 it is 92%.”

Institutions like MassMutual and Guggenheim Investments, as well as corporate coffers like Square and Microstrategy investing in BTC, as well as rumors that others are stepping into the room, are “just the beginning of a rush into a finite asset,” he said, adding:

“Bitcoin at [USD] 50K is in sight. “

And since BTC is finite and demand is “now over 3x the new supply”, the US has printed 68% more USD in the past 12 months than ever before “resulting in a largely anticipated depreciation of the dollar.” he said.

Let the PAMP go on!

– Ameer Rosic (@AmeerRosic) January 8, 2021

Meanwhile, Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, stated in his recent interview that young people used the previous stimulus checks to invest in BTC, among other things, so we have no way of knowing where the money from the next one will go. “Some of it, if not a lot of it, will find its way into the markets. One of the most unique things about the last time around is seeing how many people bought Bitcoin with that exact amount of impulses. The market feels it all.” “

However, both the Kraken researchers and DiPasquale had some warnings to share, and even Novogratz said the markets don’t rise forever every day, which means a correction will inevitably take place. DiPasquale noted that Bitcoin is inherently volatile, and “while we expect volatility to continue, we also expect higher highs and more support, leading to higher lows.”

Meanwhile, Kraken Intelligence said that historically the first quarter of a year is typically a negative return period for the first coin by market cap, arguing that “market participants should consider BTC and the broader market, the potentially less favorable monthly Results achieved. ” returns in 1Q21. “

Others seem to suggest that there will be a downward correction relatively soon, possibly after the price hits USD 40,000 – but also that the price will continue on its uptrend, or as economist and trader Alex Krüger said, “The uptrend is unharmed . “

I like 35K => 36K => 40K => 36K => 50K better.

– Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) January 6, 2021

According to Chainalysis, since Bitcoin price rose above $ 10,000 in late July, investors have bought 760,000 bitcoin from traders, reducing the amount of liquid bitcoin available for purchase. Investors are those who keep more than 75% of the bitcoin received, while traders keep less than 75% of the bitcoin received.

“Until mid-November, traders were the main suppliers of Bitcoin to investors. However, as demand increased after mid-November, traders seemed unable or unwilling to increase their supply of Bitcoin for investors,” said Philip Gradwell, chief economist at Chainalysis said in a report yesterday, adding that “older investors have made their offer – especially in the past few weeks.”

He suggested that longer-term investors will likely need a higher price to part with their Bitcoin than traders.

According to Gradwell, this supply curve remains steep unless:

  • long dormant coins come on the market;
  • External events change the price at which current owners are willing to sell (e.g. when macroeconomic stability increases and inflation expectations decrease).

“But if 2021 continues as it started, I don’t see any change anytime soon, although as always, except for volatility along the way,” he concluded.

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Further reactions:

Bitcoin 'in sight' at USD 50,000 as there is 'room for higher runs' before correction 103

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Bitcoin broke ATH with gold, the only meaningful chart we should look at. USD is too volatile to stop using!

– Zender 🟨⬛ Taproot by BIP8 (@zndtoshi)

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Outlook Jan. Cryptos: #Bitcoin is perhaps better than #Gold –
For crypto assets in 2021, the starting point is the diminishing prospects for Bitcoin to hit old highs around $ 20,000, versus the increasing potential to hold the course towards $ 50,000 and a market cap of around $ 1 trillion pic.

– Mike McGlone (@ mikemcglone11) January 7, 2021

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It looks like a new ATH for $ BTC is active addresses for women and men! The previous cycle benchmark – when aa recorded new highs – was at the end of 2016 / beginning of 2017.

– Elias Simos (@eliasimos) January 8, 2021

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Here is the market impact of the negative gamma I mentioned, quantified: //

– Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) January 8, 2021

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Learn more:
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(This article was updated at 12:35 UTC with a comment by Chainalysis. Google Trends data was added at 13:01 UTC.)

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