Bitcoin: What You Need To Know About This “Last Cycle”

Bitcoin has been in an uptrend for over a month and several analysts continue to make predictions about its price development. In a recent interview, on-chain analyst Willy Woo stated the possibility that this bull market will continue through 2022.

He said his observation is largely based on demand and supply data, suggesting an accumulation phase in investors. Data from CryptoQuant also indicated a robust bull market based on the current valuation cycle. After looking at historical data, Woo found that accumulation by long-term owners would take another month or two to peak.

Plus, it would likely have a positive impact on the price in the coming months. In addition, the CryptoQuant analysis complemented Woo’s prediction that BTC would have peaked at the end of the cycle before a bear market set in. Woo predicted that the strong market could “wear off from December”. However, he also added

“I think there’s a fair chance we’re not going into a traditional bitcoin bear market that we think is a huge return of maybe 80% of its value …”

Woo predicted a less volatile, “mature” market for the future. A market that can help Bitcoin break out of “its four-year cycle”. He predicted that Bitcoin could find its fair value and may not be able to replicate the price movement of the past three cycles. Instead, it could be like a drunken walk without a major rally and market decline.

A typical Bitcoin cycle generally consists of four phases: rally, correction, accumulation and recovery. Woo predicted

“I don’t think we’re going to have those normal four year cycles again. I call this the ‘final cycle’. “

Another aspect that extends the maturity of a market is the number of investors in the asset. It can take into account to reduce the volatility in the high range. According to Woo, BTC is on its way to one billion users by 2025, which is the number of internet users in 2005 based on “projected global Bitcoin users expressed in internet years”.

However, another hurdle to the widespread adoption of BTC is price. Bitcoin had a solid year, with April hitting a record high of over $ 64,800. At press time, BTC was hovering above the $ 50,200 range.

Does this make Bitcoin too expensive for new users?

Woo mentioned that the logical way to take this into account is to look at the risk and reward indicators instead of the absolute price. According to his analysis, BTC’s Sharpe Ratio has outperformed any other asset class over the past four years.

A recent Bloomberg report was bullish on Bitcoin as well. According to the report, BTC would cross the $ 100,000 mark with “low resistance” and

“In addition to increasing demand and acceptance, an important bullish Bitcoin guide is that 2021 is a year after the supply cut that has typically been the top performer.”

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