The US dollar has been in an uptrend since January 2021, although that has had little to no impact on the price of Bitcoin. However, thorough Bitcoin trading in 2021 was something large-cap investors wanted to legalize, and more and more banks began to offer their investors to trade BTC futures. At this point, Bitcoin was no longer tied to the motto “to the moon” as these investors’ decisions are mainly based on global macroeconomic and US economic data as well as the decisions of the SEC.
The SEC appeared to be in a rough mood over Bitcoin this November. The SEC’s first strike was the rejection of Van Eck’s bitcoin spot ETF, don’t confuse it with the approved bitcoin futures ETFs. Disrupting the anonymity of the cryptocurrency market is the main course the SEC wants to put on the table. Regulator wants to regulate, that was obvious and the rejection of Van Eck’s ETF application was predicted by many analysts.
On November 12, Bitcoin seemed to change direction and go up, but on November 15, the uptrend was blocked by a resistance at $ 65,800 after US President Joe Biden signed a $ 1 trillion infrastructure bill. The bill is another step towards regulating cryptocurrencies and requires all companies and brokers to report all transactions over $ 10,000 to the IRS.
With all of these happening in mid-November, the Bitcoin bulls seem to be losing power and pushing Bitcoin to new highs. The move closer to Bitcoin futures settlement allows the bears to lower Bitcoin to support levels near $ 58,200.
Bitcoin chart analysis
The 4-hour Bitcoin chart looks very bullish, MACD and RSI indicators signal an imminent short-term trend reversal. However, this reversal will initially be disturbed by a strong resistance at $ 62700. If Bitcoin closes above $ 62,700 to continue the bull run, it must close above a critical distribution zone at $ 65,600 and $ 66,100.
The daily BTC chart shows that a steeper correction can be expected. Bitcoin closed at $ 69,000 below April’s dynamic resistance after retesting its new ATH. Price movement of October 27, 2021, until $ 69,000 was muddy, was followed by a sharp correction following each impulse. Hence, the October 28 uptrend was most likely an expanded B-wave of Elliot’s wave theory. If it does, then according to the rules, Bitcoin will have to take another leg down to complete the C-wave and correction.
The C wave will most likely complete at levels near $ 52,800 and $ 51,600, where Bitcoin will hit the resistance of the previous impulse to test it as support, and will retest the July 21, 2021 dynamic support. This retest will also include MACD and RSI. reset indicators to buy signaling areas.
I still believe that based on Bitcoin’s monthly return chart and assuming that futures traders need to take the price above the monthly opening price before settlement, Bitcoin should retest to make a profit.
Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s usual green month based on returns, let’s see if that November keeps the tradition.
This article was originally published on FX Empire
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