By when should Ethereum reach $ 5,000? Analyze the opportunities

Ethereum is considered to be the leader in altcoins. As the second largest cryptocurrency, it has created a strong network of proof of work. But with the proof-of-stake update, Ethereum could create much tougher competition for Bitcoin.

Ethereum is going where?

After this 76.81% Rally, it would look like, is the way up. However, this rally was mainly driven by spot trading which is now slowing as prices begin to fall. Hence, investors need to prepare for the next price levels that will not rise. If you look at ETH Options Open Interest by Strike, you can see that puts are clearly dominant in the lower areas.

Puts contracts are quite high for the $ 2,000-2.5,000 range, while calls dominate the $ 5,000 range. There are higher contracts for USD 4,000, USD 5,000 and USD 6,000 compared to the lower ranges, but these ranges are more likely due to the expiration of these contracts.

Ethereum OI by strike | Source: Skew – AMBCrypto

Most of these contracts will expire around September or December. It may be a possibility for Ethereum to hit $ 5k by then, but that won’t happen until the end of August. Looking at the run-out for August, it becomes clear that although these run-outs are a bit more bullish, the chance of a bearish move is the same.

However, the probable target price is not viewed solely on the basis of the expiry targets. These goals are drawn from the probability index.

Expiry of the Ethereum OI contracts | Source: Skew – AMBCrypto

The probability index?

The index analyzes the market and price movement of Ethereum to provide an estimated probability of the next possible range. Sad for Ethereum’s bullish investors. At the moment, the index has only a 1.26% chance of hitting $ 5,000. And it also makes sense since the three-week 76% rally only raised ETH by $ 2,000.

On the other hand, there seems to be an 88-96 percent chance of ETH falling to $ 2,000 to $ 2.5,000. While the probability is high, these bandwidths are far too low. For the altcoin to get there it has to drop 36%, which is very unlikely.

So, based on price movements, the possibility of upcoming corrections, and the data in the chain, ETH could average between $ 2,800 and $ 3,000 by the end of the month.

The Ethereum Probability Index shows a price drop to $ 2,000 | Source: Skew – AMBCrypto

This is confirmed by the high futures and options volumes as well as the options OI and futures OI, which are at a 1-month high and a 3-month high, respectively.

Ethereum Futures Open Interest at a 3 Month High | Source: Skew – AMBCrypto

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