Uptrend, Consolidation, Divergence, Consolidation – This is what the Ethereum price chart typically looked like at the time of writing. The price of the largest old has now stayed well below $ 3,500 for six consecutive days, and in particular the current phase of consolidation is pretty much the same as that observed in mid-August.
That being said, it should also be noted that there is a huge difference. In mid-August the ETH price tended towards the lower range, but this time the price has obviously moved more in the upper range.
Thus the previous correction period lasted more than 2 weeks. So is the same to be expected this time too?
The attitudes of market participants play a large part in solidifying the direction of an ongoing trend. By and large, the collective sentiment of Ethereum options traders appeared to be quite positive at the time of writing.
There are currently 1917 DBT contracts that assume the price of ETH will reach $ 5,500 by the end of this year. Aside from the long-term claim, these market participants are also quite optimistic in the short term. As can be seen from the attached skew chart, 1731 contract holders expect the valuation of Ethereum by March 17th.
In any case, it underscores the bullishness. Ergo, the likelihood that the price of Ethereum will drift from its current $ 3200 zone towards further highs in the coming week seems quite likely at the moment.
However, it should also be noted that a fair percentage of traders have currently opened their put-sell contract at an exercise price of $ 2800. Even so, this number is not massive enough to overshadow the cumulative number of call contracts and should not have any significant impact on the price in retrospect.
Additionally, aggregate open interest is also showing signs of recovery lately. According to data from Skew, the OI at Deribit was around $ 4 million as of September 10. However, at press time, it was valued at over $ 5 billion, indicating the recurrence of interest. This essentially means that fewer contracts are billed than new contracts are added.
In retrospect, it can be said that at this point in time new money will flow into the Ethereum market. The OI on other prominent exchanges such as OKEx and bit.com has also seen peaks recently.
Mood swings in the third quarter
Throughout history, the third quarter has always been quite eventful for Ethereum. In 2015, 2018 and 2019, ETH’s quarterly ROI remained negative [-75%, -50% and -38%, to be precise]. However, the market has evolved over time.
Except for one case, as shown below, negative returns decreased for every third quarter thereafter. In fact, it was even 60% last year. With over two weeks to the end of the quarter, the returns on the board are already showing a respectable 44%.
If the bullish momentum continues and the buying pressure increases in the coming days, a quarter end of over 40% can be expected.
Given the previous precedents, collective trader sentiment, and gimmicks of the third quarter, it would be fair to say that the price of Ethereum will gain momentum in the coming days, rising to local highs by the end of this month.