Country Adoption Method Bitcoin – Bitcoin Magazine: Bitcoin News, Articles, Charts, and Guides

The exciting thing about predicting a Bitcoin future is that there is very little direct history to refer to. Everything is new, unpredictable, terrifying and full of possibilities. There were no data points as of El Salvador, but this may provide information about the next country-size domino to fall.

What internal or external catalysts might be necessary for a country to adopt Bitcoin?

Despair?

Heritage?

Political rumors?

Currency collapse?

Opportunity?

First mover advantage?

Appreciation?

These motivations are unevenly distributed among the population and government officials. All of these are powerful motivators, and perhaps the data below can provide some insight into the motivations that could spark the next seismic shift in the currency landscape.

Before the data, let’s examine possible styles of adoption. The first style is the top-down government takeover, which envisages laws to lead the country to adopting Bitcoin with potentially modest popular support. Hybrid adoption is a moderate population with a growing dynamic that encourages the government to put bitcoin laws in place. Ultimately, bottom-up adoption is driven by an overwhelming popular acceptance that almost forces the government to fight and eventually abide by it. Countries adopting Bitcoin will give their reasons, trends will eventually emerge, and history will show which metrics mean the most.

Top-down adoption

The government steps in and codifies Bitcoin ahead of the widespread acceptance of Bitcoin among the population. In my view, this is the least preferred, but potentially the fastest adoption mechanism. Forced adoption violates the principles of free market and self-sovereignty that many Bitcoiners advocate. With enough time, El Salvador would likely have been a hybrid adoption case (see below), as news from the Strike app has organically accelerated and embraced, coupled with a forward-thinking government.

However, El Salvador made rapid progress and opted for the top-down approach. El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele provided several reasons to offer himself up as data points in their top-down adoption – a high remittance-based economy, negative migration numbers dependent on unelected monetary policy, and citizens with no bank account. Every reason is rational and solving any problem benefits the country as a whole.

These data points will likely be consistent for top-down approaches as governments try to plug the holes in their sinking moneyships or evade the option of sanctions. I believe this method is prone to contagion as world leaders rush to be seen as innovative, forward-thinking visionaries and risk another world leader gaining the clout of the trailblazer could push countries in a similar region to adopt .

Hybrid introduction

This adoption style is spearheaded by enough people to encourage a forward-thinking government to capture the movement and legally codify Bitcoin. By riding the ground of acceptance early on, a government can gain momentum and count Bitcoin’s success as its own. The free markets will already have created incentives for acceptance, innovation and education. The government would only need to bring Bitcoin the last 20-30% of the way to a full Bitcoin standard.

Common features of such a country are likely to be higher inflation rates, unstable monetary policies, moderate cell phone penetration, active social media, and lower gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. My guess is that this method is the most likely for most countries as politicians face game theory decisions that could be devastating to their political careers.

Such politicians can choose to embrace and gain favor on the younger, quirky, innovative, dopamine-infused, futuristic monetary system on social media, or oppose the adoption of Bitcoin and potentially lose their political careers. Political parties will grapple with the younger generation and face extinction at the ballot box. In addition, I believe that this implementation method, similar to the top-down approach, is very susceptible to contagion as other countries in a similar region signal the introduction of Bitcoin. it puts pressure on governments to make monetary progress.

Bottom-up assumption

The most preferred method of a free market and any self-sovereign person may end up being possibly the messiest method of adoption. Governments unwilling to adopt the hybrid method are likely to avoid legally codifying Bitcoin for specific reasons of maintaining power. This can lead to bans, raids, strict regulations, fines, abuse, and other human rights abuses. The bitcoin movement is likely to slowly but surely continue its momentum and anchoring underground.

Bottom-up adoption will occur in countries with moderate to high levels of corruption, neutral migration numbers, moderate to high urban populations, very active social media, and very high cell phone penetration.

Countries and governments that have the most to lose in terms of monetary power, geopolitical influence, and uncommitted spending budgets will be the most resilient. Free markets will, of course, choose an open and mathematically sound monetary policy, but governments will likely try to convince the population that this is not to their advantage. The proliferation of social media and cell phones will be key to circumventing misinformation. The free market will converge on Bitcoin, but governments will be faced with a choice of either pushing for Bitcoin, reluctantly pulling, or opposing Bitcoin’s adoption. Countries could get stuck in this method of adoption for a long time to come.

In light of these three assumption scenarios, we come to the data at hand. I’ve consolidated data from multiple sources and time periods. The data come from the last available year with a largely complete data set. As usual with our community, I’ve posted all of the data sources below so everyone else can build / update their own data collection. The data can be spotty or just too small due to the limitation of the country’s transparency.

Data collected:

  1. Official main currency
  2. population
  3. % Urban Pop
  4. middle Ages
  5. % of transfers / GDP
  6. Migration network
  7. Net migration%
  8. Adults with a% by Pop bank account.
  9. Internet users% of the population.
  10. Active social media users% of the pop.
  11. Cell phone lines% pop.
  12. Corruption rank
  13. Government style

Here is a link to a shared Google sheet that has the data tables.

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This is a guest post from Bitcoin & Bald. The opinions expressed are solely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

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