After Bitcoin (BTC) rose to a relative high of around $ 53,000 a little over two weeks ago, it seemed well on its way to recapturing its previous all-time highs. However, the string of events that has played out over the past week has resulted in the world’s largest cryptocurrency by total market capitalization losing nearly 13% of its value, with a single BTC currently trading around $ 45,800.
The aforementioned volatility, however, appears to have left Standard Chartered’s cryptocurrency research department completely unimpressed, with analysts calling Bitcoin’s recent slump a “false slump” while affirming that an end-of-year target of $ 100,000 per BTC is still quite achievable is for the flagship cryptocurrency.
The banking giant believes Bitcoin will hit $ 100,000 by “late 2021 or early 2022,” a move that is also accompanied by a huge surge in the value of ether (ETH). In fact, the research team indicated that ether is “structurally” valued at a year-end price of between $ 26,000 and $ 35,000.
To get a better idea of whether a year-end forecast of $ 100,000 per BTC is still feasible, Cointelegraph reached out to Ben Caselin, head of research and strategy at the cryptocurrency exchange AAX. In his opinion, last Tuesday’s sell-off was a classic “sell the news” movement. He believes an elaborate “bear trap” may have been involved. Caselin told Cointelegraph:
“I’m assuming $ 100,000 is still in play for Bitcoin this year – if anything, $ 100,000 wouldn’t be overwhelming. If we track PlanB’s stock-to-flow, we’re still in the lower band, tracking worst-case scenario prices, which were last month at $ 47,000, in September $ 43,000 and no less than $ 135 were K at the end of the year. “
He added that with Bitcoin, there is more value in looking at the on-chain data than just the technical price data as it allows users to get a higher resolution look at what is actually going on on the network in real time.
Similarly, Tommy Schreiner, senior research analyst at crypto data provider TheTIE, told Cointelegraph that there is still a good chance Bitcoin can hit $ 100,000 by the end of 2021:
“$ 100K may seem as ridiculous as $ 50K last year, but there are factors that don’t completely rule out this scenario. The most recent pullback was mainly a deleveraging of the market as a large percentage of the leveraged open interests were wiped out and any bullish traders who went on YOLO were effectively rolled back.
Schreiner went on to emphasize that despite all the economic turmoil around the world, the US Federal Reserve has shown no signs of stopping the money printer, which he believes is a good sign for relatively risky assets like cryptocurrencies.
Additionally, he highlighted that Layer-One solutions such as Solana, Terra, Avalanche, Polygon, and Fantom have continued to add new money to the global digital asset ecosystem in recent months, which could also help add to the value of BTC increase.
“NFTs [nonfungible tokens] burn a large amount of Ethereum every day, even though many retail users are priced out. So if $ 100,000 seems ridiculous, maybe look at how far crypto has come in just a year, ”Schreiner said.
Nick Spanos, co-founder of Zap Protocol, believes the recent adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender by El Salvador believes the digital currency is well on its way to breaking the $ 100,000 mark by the end of the year. “Ether also wants to reach $ 10,000 by then,” he said.
Some doubts for $ 100,000
Lennix Lai, financial markets director at OKEx cryptocurrency exchange, believes that while the future of Bitcoin looks set for good things, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the leading digital currency will close the year at $ 100,000. He told Cointelegraph:
“I think we would see a short-term correction, considering that the upcoming throttling of the US Bitcoin is still very sensitive to the global money supply. At the same time, cryptocurrency is becoming a legitimate alternative asset class and everyone is looking for certain parts of the asset allocation. ”
Lai acknowledged that if 1% of total global wealth were to go into Bitcoin in the near to mid term, a target price of $ 100,000 per BTC could be quite easily achieved.
For Igneus Terrenus, head of communications at Bybit cryptocurrency exchange, the most compelling reason Bitcoin price hit $ 100,000 this year remains the approval of a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) in the United States, which he believes to help open the BTC market to new entrants, such as pension funds and wealth management products.
“SEC has the [BTC ETF] Decision from September 8th to the new date November 14th – still in the calendar year 2021. Anecdotal evidence shows that almost all asset managers are asked about Bitcoin exposures by their clients. An ETF could be just the right vehicle for that, ”he told Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin’s specs look strong
Despite the recent volatility, Bitcoin fundamentals appear to be pretty strong right now. In that regard, Charles Edwards, the creator of one of the world’s most famous Bitcoin metrics, Hash Ribbons, recently claimed that as long as the flagship cryptocurrency can hover above its key resistance zone of $ 42,000, it will continue to exist on the green.
Late last year, Edwards predicted that Bitcoin could target a price target of between $ 100,000 and $ 200,000 by the end of 2021. He said he would be “shocked” if Bitcoin didn’t hit $ 50,000 in 2021, a forecast that came true after the currency hit its all-time high of $ 63,000 earlier this year.
One of the key differences between this current and past rally, according to Edward, is the comparatively low level of retail interest that has been widely observed. To hit a new all-time high this year, he believes Bitcoin will have to spend a considerable amount of time above the $ 50,000 mark. “I think that would rekindle retail interest,” he said.
While Edwards may not have $ 100,000 up his hand, he believes the market is slowly but surely approaching the price point. However, for this to happen anytime in the next three to four months, he believes it either needs renewed retail interest or a significant number of purchases must be made from leading S&P 500 companies like Tesla.
Compared to previous events, the monetary impact of the halving in 2020 has been quite modest so far, with Bitcoin only seeing a 4x increase in value. In comparison, we can see that in the years after the halving in 2012 and 2016, the value of BTC increased by 55 times and
It will be interesting to see how the cryptocurrency market in general evolves in the coming days, especially as regulators around the world tighten their scrutiny over this nascent industry.