Looking long-term: This is what awaits us after the following Bitcoin halving

After the halving is earlier than the halving. Bitcoin expects this after the subsequent halving of the block subsidy.

Hardly anything is so deeply anchored in the Bitcoin delivery code because the block subsidies are halved every 4 years. Because after exactly 210,000 blocks, the rate of inflation within the Bitcoin community drops drastically. This makes BTC a disinflationary foreign money; The default remains inflationary as the bottom increases. However, it is getting smaller and smaller. In the year 2140 the expansion of the offer means a standstill.

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The block of subsidies was finally halved in May 2020. A lot has happened since then: over 50,000 blocs have moved into the nation, 89 percent of all BTC that has ever been in circulation are being mined, and the # 1 cryptocurrency is in its third historic bull run. But after the halving is earlier than the halving. Time to take another look after Halving # 4.

What we’re going to rely on in halving # 4

The most important factor ahead of time: the exact date of the Bitcoin halving can only be estimated. After all, the Bitcoin delivery code only indicates the block peak at which the community’s consensus guidelines will change. The next time it would be at Block Peak 840,000. Based on an average blocking time of 10 minutes, the Bitcoin inflation fee should be halved by March 2024 – almost exactly in three years.

As a look at buybitcoinworldwide.com shows, we are now exactly 1/4 of the current halving interval behind us.

Bitcoin’s falling inflation fee arguably makes the asset the hardest money in the world. Until the imminent halving, 986,350 BTC will be added to the system by the editorial deadline, which can increase the provision to 19.68 million. In other words, even sooner than the inflation fee halves in the following time, 93.75 percent of all cash ever in circulation is in the system.

With the halving of quantity 4, the inflation fee then falls below 1 pc pa for the first time. Currently there are 1.77 pieces, from March 2024 it would then only be 0.84 pieces

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Halves sometimes fall into consolidation range after the bear markets. In the meantime, if Bitcoin’s cyclical development continues, it should be over with costs rising towards the top of this year. However, no one can reliably estimate how high the value will rise. Models such as the stock-to-flow mannequin (S2F), which sees the halving occasions as an important catalyst for value pumps, offer orientation. However, Hodler cannot rely on PlanB’s forecasts.

If you do use the mannequin as a template it becomes undeniably bullish. Because even in line with the “conservative” S2F mannequin, the implicit value of the following bull market is around 1.3 million US dollars per bitcoin.

The well-known stock-to-flow mannequin. Source: https://stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/stock-to-flow/

A falling block subsidy also means: falling income for the miners. In the long run, this is more likely at the expense of transaction fees – especially if additional people are using Bitcoin. Some of the on-chain fees are already higher in 2017 than via the bull market.

Average BTC transaction fees for on-chain transactions. Source: YCharts.

Bitcoiners are increasingly relying on Lightning so that BTC can still be used for funds. A look at the expansion of the channels shows that this hope is already bearing fruit.

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