Step one: Bitcoin is aiming for a 24% profit in October when the countdown to the US elections begins

Bitcoin fell around $ 13,400 despite it was on the right track, gaining 24% in October. This is impressive performance as US stocks fell 1.6% month-over-month and gold was down 0.5%.

“With the US elections only days away, we have to be patient when it comes to headwinds that push BTC to new multi-year highs,” wrote Matt Blom, head of sales and trading at cryptocurrency-focused finance firm Diginex in a note the customer.

In traditional markets, European stocks fluctuated and US futures indicated a lower opening. The dollar remained stable in the currency markets and 10-year US Treasury bond yields rose 0.01 percentage points to 0.83%.

“Our short-term risk appetite indicator is firmly in negative territory,” said Jean-Francois Paren, head of global market research at Credit Agricole CIB, in a statement to clients, according to Bloomberg News.

Market moves

There is an undercurrent in the crypto industry where true believers view the future of money less as money than as truth, exposing the flaws and flaws, abuses and flaws of the traditional financial system and economy.

It’s not just about getting rich. It’s about redefining the whole system, starting with cutting edge technology and fresh ideas, a full reset.

It’s also about convincing everyone else that the mission is worthy, perhaps inevitable – on the right side of the story.

This is the backdrop to the latest monthly letter from Dan Morehead, a former derivatives trader and hedge fund manager at Goldman Sachs who now heads San Francisco-based cryptocurrency investment firm Pantera Capital.

The letter includes a clever table designed to show how succinct, concise, laconic, clear, efficient and compact the Bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto was when he wrote the whitepaper that served as the intellectual, logical, economic and mathematical basis for the original and the stalemate served – largest blockchain-cum-cryptocurrency.

Nakamoto only needed 3,192 words for the blueprint, or less than a tenth of the Book of Genesis from the Jewish and Christian Bibles. The figure is half that used to create the US Constitution and about 1% of Adam Smith’s pioneering “Wealth of Nations”.

Word counts of groundbreaking texts compared to the Bitcoin whitepaper by Satoshi Nakamoto.

Source: Pantera

Blockchain for Dummies, a simplified textbook on blockchain, took 20 times as many words to explain the technology as Nakamoto’s whitepaper.

Aside from highlighting the elegant genius of the (possibly?) Pseudonymous founder of Bitcoin, the essential crypto standpoint is to get the world right. According to Morehead, the following graph provides an important reminder that the loss of production remains severe as the global economy recovers from the coronavirus-triggered lockdown earlier this year:

Graphic showing the lasting effects of economic loss.

Source: Pantera / Goldman Sachs

The point was to illustrate the lack of context for Thursday’s US government report that the world’s largest economy rose 33% in the third quarter as lockdowns eased. To get it to market, it was perhaps the biggest dead cat bounce in world history, measured in dollars.

Given the wreckage in the economy, the rationale is that massive stimulus will be needed from the government and the Federal Reserve, which will eventually weaken the dollar and drive Bitcoin prices up. (Deribit, the largest cryptocurrency options exchange, just listed a deal that would allow traders to bet on a $ 40,000 price rally next year, tripling the current price.)

Morehead wrote in the letter that a recent rush to Bitcoin from big players like PayPal, MicroStrategy and Paul Tudor Jones could ultimately provide more coverage for big players.

This is not about greed or the future of money. It’s about right and wrong, or rather, who is right and who is wrong.

“A movement is unsuccessful because of its original leader,” wrote Morehead. “Rather, it’s the first follower and subsequent followers who make it work. The more people participate, the less risky it is to take part. Those who were previously on the fence have fewer excuses as the movement grows. ”

For anyone wondering, Pantera’s full monthly newsletter hit roughly 3,130 words. For what it’s worth

Bitcoin clock

Bitcoin daily price chart with support at $ 12,500.

Source: TradingView

While the market environment is currently not conducive to bullish price movements in Bitcoin, analysts say the cryptocurrency is unlikely to see a meteoric decline.

“With the upcoming US election and the collapse in the old markets, traditional investors will maintain a risk-free mindset,” said trader and analyst Nick Cote CoinDesk in a Telegram chat.

Some observers say the US could find itself in a constitutional crisis if Democratic candidate Joe Biden wins by a narrow margin and President Donald Trump tries to cast doubt on the results. Electoral uncertainty combined with the coronavirus resurgence in the US and across Europe sparked risk aversion in equity markets this week and slowed Bitcoin’s price rally.

The anti-risk sentiment could at least prevail until the November 3rd US elections. Patrick Heusser, Senior Cryptocurrency Trader at Crypto Broker AG, therefore urges short-term speculators to be careful. “I expect volatility to rise and would be careful if I set the stop-loss values ​​too tight,” said Heusser. “Traders should now maintain a low risk profile.”

Bitcoin is currently trading in the red near $ 13,300, down 1% on the day. Should risk aversion worsen in traditional markets, the cryptocurrency could revisit the support at $ 12,500 to $ 12,000.

“If prices couldn’t hold the bullish setback [bull market pullback] At $ 12,200 to $ 12,000, the focus would shift to the next major support levels at $ 11,100 and $ 10,800, “said Cote.

A drop in prices seems unlikely, however, as the major central banks are already printing huge amounts of fiat money and the cryptocurrency is currently backed by a strong bullish display of increased institutional participation.

In addition, in the event of widespread lockdowns and renewed economic slowdowns, central banks are expected to provide additional impetus, fuel fears of inflation and stimulate demand for Bitcoin, said Cote.

All in all, slumps in Bitcoin could be short-lived.

On the higher side, the June 2019 high of $ 13,880 is the immediate resistance, followed by the next daily resistance block at $ 15,800 to $ 16,000. According to Heusser, there are great deals on Bitfinex cryptocurrency exchange close to $ 14,000.

Token clock

Bitcoin (BTC): Cryptocurrency’s price rally is spurring transactions, just like the end of the rainy season in China is causing bitcoin miners to back off, creating a congestion and pushing transaction fees to their highest level in 28 months.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH): Still paralyzed by the founder’s arrest, OKEx crypto exchange details the plans for dealing with the hard fork in November.

Uniswap (UNI): Uniswap’s $ 40 million vote ends on Halloween and some owners fear the price.

Harvest Financing (FARM): The DeFi Yield Aggregator increases the premium from $ 100,000 to $ 1M for information that results in a $ 24M return on funds withdrawn via this week’s exploit.

Ripple (XRP): The blockchain payment firm invested $ 9.3 million in the partially owned remittance giant MoneyGram in the third quarter.

Analogues

The latest on economics and traditional finance

The ECB is signaling further impulses to support the weak economy (WSJ).

Central banks were net sellers of gold for the first time in ten years in the third quarter as prices neared record highs (Bloomberg).

Small-cap stocks that have been bolstered by betting on Biden-led Stimulus (WSJ)

The Swiss bank Credit Suisse is aiming for a share buyback of up to USD 1.6 billion, even if the loan loss provisions are 8 times the 10-year average (WSJ).

Sales of over $ 5 million in New York’s The Hamptons quadrupled in Q3 as wealthy New Yorkers flee the city (WSJ).

Exxon Mobile Eliminates 15% of Global Workforce Including 1.9,000 US Jobs as Anemic Economy Cuts Oil Demand (WSJ)

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