Find out the latest news with Ripple (CCC:XRP-USD), and it is clear that his chance of beating the Securities and Exchange Commission case remains great. However, this alone does not guarantee that this altcoin will have a clear path to higher prices.
As I broken it down in my last article on Ripple, it’s too early to buy it before a possible court win. A decision in this case or even a settlement is still months away. This can mean increased investor impatience and further downward movement.
My previous concern (investor impatience) may now be less pronounced as the time to decision day gets shorter. But now, the uncertainty of the crypto market could be what is bringing down Ripple in the meantime. Upcoming upgrades could help bring back the bull market that stalled in May.
However, if that is not enough and retail investors / traders continue to exit this asset class, downward pressure could drive Ripple down significantly. With that in mind, the best move with Ripple remains to be seen.
If cryptos correct again across the board, it could be worth buying at lower prices before the Ripple court ruled.
Ripple’s odds are getting better
In the months since the beginning of the SEC vs. Ripple Labs proceedings, the defendant in this case (the developer of XRP) has succeeded in putting the securities industry’s watchdog in its place. As the latest news suggests, it continues to do so.
As you may have heard, Ripple won another victory as the judge allowed Bill Hinman, a former SEC director, to be heard on July 27th. What is the meaning of Hinman? In a speech in 2018, Hinman stated that ether (CCC:ETH-USD) was not a security.
Why is that important? If Ripple Labs can determine that its token is similar enough to ETH, it can be difficult for the SEC to prove its claim that the XRP token sale was an unregistered security offering.
This is definitely positive for his chances of beating the SEC’s case. But I wouldn’t go so far as to say that the case is closed. We are still months away from a decision. Other factors that could bring it down in the meantime have not gone away.
What is the most important thing now? Growing concerns about another general slide for cryptos. This may lead to another withdrawal before the decision date (probably in September).
XRP could go down
Investors who buy Ripple at around 58 cents today can expect it to go back to $ 1 (or higher) if it wins in court in a few months. But who says this altcoin won’t go down again until then? Sure, worrying about short-term volatility can be little potatoes when expecting a doubling.
But there is still a lot to suggest that you can get Ripple at a much lower price, even before the legal process is closed. The risk to Ripple could have more to do with the state of the overall cryptocurrency market.
Cryptos across the board, from established ones like Bitcoin (CCC:BTC-USD) and Ethereum have not recovered. The same thing happened to so-called Ethereum killers like Cardano (CCC:ADA-USD) and Polygon (CCC:MATIC-USD).
It is no longer an area of quick money making and retail speculators continue to lose interest in this asset class. You managed to avoid another correction like that in May.
However, if sentiment continues to move in its current direction, there could be another big sell-off by September.
What does this mean for Ripple? Instead of buying it for 58 cents in hopes of it coming back down to $ 1, you may be able to buy it for 30 or 40 cents before there is potentially a parabolic move in the headlines of its (possible) win over the SEC power.
Let’s wait and see
Given its lesser utility compared to Ethereum and other highly DeFi-compatible altcoins, the reason for buying XRP remains a binary bet that it will win its lawsuit with the SEC. The latest news is encouraging, but the final decision still remains months away.
Meanwhile, with uncertainty over the cryptocurrency market still clouding, another sell-off could be on the horizon. Instead of encountering Ripple, a wait and see approach remains the best option.
At the time of publication, Thomas Niel held long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum. He has held positions (neither directly nor indirectly) in any of the other securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and are subject to InvestorPlace.com’s posting guidelines.
Thomas Niel, contributor for InvestorPlace.com, has been writing individual stock analyzes for web-based publications since 2016.